Fort Erie at greater risk of long lake-effect snow season if temperatures stay mild

The longer it stays warm into the early winter months, the greater chance there is in Fort Erie for lake-effect snow.

That’s according to Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Geoff Coulson, who told Fort Erie Radio this week that although forecasts for December and January have not been officially calculated yet, it seems that it will be a “milder-than-normal winter.”

This means it could take longer for ice formations to take shape on Lake Erie, resulting in a longer season of potential lake-effect snow.

In late November, the average daytime high is five degrees Celsius, while the high in late December is usually zero degrees Celsius.

“As you move through the month of December, there is more opportunity to get shots of colder air. And if there is a lot of open water, there’s more potential for lake effect,” said Coulson.

Last winter was greatly impacted by an El Nino system along the Pacific Ocean, which resulted in record-low amounts of ice on the Great Lakes, not seen since 1973.

In mid-February of 2024, less than one per cent of Lake Erie was covered by ice.

A La Nina event, cooler temperatures over the Pacific and the opposite of El Nino, is anticipated this winter, but it will still be “a little bit warmer than normal,” just not as mild as the previous one, said Coulson.

He said lake-effect events are more common and severe in December and January, but there is a high possibility still in February and beyond when there is less ice on the lake.

And even though it’s predicted to be a relatively mild winter, “little bursts” of cold air and “variations from day to day and week to week” could be part of the formula for lake-effect snow, said Coulson.

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